Here's a hunch/gods of racing tip-off of sorts: Devil May Care in in post 11, her trainer's average derby finish is 11 and she has been holding at 11-1 in the odds. And that's not all: in the Pick Four, the number 11 horse won race 4 and race 5.

That's just a hunch, of course. But its been hunches and improbabilities that have ruled past Kentucky Derby races.

Back when I used to wager on horse racing, I would make tons of money by betting exactas that looked something like this:'consisted of favorites over longshots, and "middle shots" over favorites. lukewarm favorites over longshots.

So, if I were of a betting mind, this is how I would wager on the 2010 Kentucky Derby:

For horses who I think are "hunches" or personal favorites, I make sure I use them in every exacta play.

4 Super Saver

5 Line of David

8 Dean's Kitten

13 Jackson Bend

Then, I play an Exacta consisting of longshots over faves, and a separate exacta consisting of favorites and lukewarm favorites over longshots

[updated 5/1/2010 at 1:30pm

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